How should a mainland China-born EB-5 investor estimate how long they need to wait before a visa number is available?

The time frame provided by Charlie at the conference for Chinese nationals was an estimation based on the number of petitions and a priority date that regularly fluctuates from month to month. Prospectively, various variables would continue to affect the processing times and the eventual decision of the State Department such as the number of submitted and approvable petitions both from China and the rest of the world. Also, assuming the current scenario persists, the starting point for the State Department''s estimated time for I-526 from fling to approval is currently at about three years. Unless there is a significant relief, the processing may increase. Secondly, the waiting period for either DS-260 or I-485 for the Chinese nationals can be as much six to eight years depending on the priority date as periodically announced in the Visa Bulletin. Thirdly, add another 2 years before filing I-829 to obtain permanent residency, the I-829 application can then languish for another 2.2 years. Thus, breaking down the 16.2 years waiting period scenario may look like this: (4 + 8 + 2 + 2.2) and this is not unusual. This estimate may vary depending on how well the petition is handled in terms of the quality and quantity of information provided to the USCIS by investors themselves and the delay these Chinese petitions may experience from other related agencies, such as the NVC at relevant times. Last but not the least, this scenario may be ameliorated by any of the bills floating in the Congress if they could metamorphose into a good bill or law without too much opposition from groups with diametrically opposite interests, which seem to bedevil all the current bills.

Mr. Oppenheim is the person with the most knowledge and the most information and we have to rely on his guestimates. Note he makes it very clear this is merely an estimate since there are too many variables. Right now we hoping that one of the good bills goes through, such as Senator Graham''s bill.

I think Charlie is anticipating the retrogression to increase over the next several years.

The current processing time for I-526 immigrant investor petition is approximately two to three years. Once approved, Chinese nationals have a waiting period until the priority date is current, so around five years before Chinese nationals can proceed to file for immigrant visas at the present processing timeline. This is subject to change based on retrogression or faster movement on any given month.

The critical factor is the rate of advancement on the visa bulletin on a monthly basis and the number of filed cases after the current priority date. It is impossible to predict with precision the waiting period but 10 years or longer may be close. Furthermore, Congress in the interim at some point may increase visa numbers and/or pass legislation to clarify that only the investor and not their dependents should be counted against the quota.

It is calculated by how many people ahead of you and how many are available to Chinese investors each year.

It is calculated by the number of pending applications and the number of visas that can be issued per year.